My Prediction

Not to toot my own horn too much, but my prediction for "the electoral vote breaks down 235 for Bush, 251 for Kerry, and 52 undecided (Florida, New Mexico, and Ohio)." As it stands this morning, Kerry has 252 and Bush 254 with Ohio, Iowa, and New Mexico not yet called (but all three going Bush). The primary difference between my prediction and the current state of affairs is that Florida is decided for Bush and Iowa is still not decided. This result would tend to validate my assumption that "undecideds, barring exceptional circumstances, will break in favor of the incumbent," whereas conventional wisdom tends to have undecided voters going for the challenger.